我看了他的讲话 人家问的是日元 他说他不会bet a currency going to hell来证明他不认为日元是a currency going to hell 然后他觉得日元是个好deal
他认为所有的政府都会devalue自己的currency这是历史趋势 而如果美元完蛋了 那么所有国家的currency都会完蛋
我不知道这文章怎么写的 我建议诸位去看一下他的讲话
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那这么说比特币和黄金要上天了？
他的底层逻辑就是 这100天 和前任期的100天 50天 whatever在大时间长流里都无足挂齿
他觉得这届政府作为是危险的 各个国家应该加大trade 自己生产自己擅长的东西
他们也不愿意做number trick 也没想法去买别的货币做短期财报盈利due to 汇率变化
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买黄金，美元跌黄金就涨
HK联系汇率机制就是这样的 港币兑美元7.75-7.85中間浮動 这几天港币走強觸到7.75(對港元需求强劲)金管局就會向市場以1比7.8卖出港幣買入美元(通俗来说是试图让港币兑美元走弱离开7.75这个点位) 这部分港币就会进入银行系统变成结余的一部分。这可以认为是个自动触发的机制 而不是主动救市
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看你怎么解读 如果你觉得你看完他说的这段话 得出了 “强烈看空美元 a currency going to hell” 我只能说建议你快点抛光美元吧 况且他还特别说了他们不会玩number trick暗指搞汇率提高盈利
我也看空美元 你可以从我之前发的帖子看得出 我只是说你引用的文章明显是散布FUD 断章取义。
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同意+1 老巴是回答为啥有很多unhedged yen position
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all in 黄金
不信，别的货币肯定会很难过一段时间
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买比特币
原文的意思应该是老巴说“我们不会投资在一个going to hell的货币上”所以日元不是going to hell，另一方面，他担心美元贬值，但并不是说美元going to hell。
反过来，特朗普上台100天固然干了很多惊人的事情，并不一定促使美元贬值，遑论加速贬值。拜登政府大放水的时候，我好奇老巴有没有说过什么？
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老巴的日元不是美元换的，而是自己发日元债来的，我认为人口萎缩国的货币持续go to hell，实际上他借的日元买的是五大商社的海外矿产
所以发行外币债券相当于短仓该种外币，当然希望该币种go to hell这样还本容易。另一方面，老巴也持有日元公司股份，这一部分并不希望日元贬值。本质上老巴在日本是左右互搏，互相hedge
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这个总结的我觉得比较准确
比特币。现在的国际动荡再加上特朗普和各国政府对加密货币的态度转变让比特币成为一个需要有的资产。
如果lz对比特币不是完全相信，或者还是担心风险太大。那至少要有一些exposure。
我说EWT怎么莫名其妙涨了4% 
可以直接全部换成美股 
大家还是看一手的吃点好的吧，二手深加工真受不了，老巴年会视频链接
So uh actually the the uh the end um um uh the relationship of the end behavior of the end in the last quarter you know resulted in certain gap charges and uh but it doesn’t make it it doesn’t make any difference. it’ll change next, you know, next month or next year. And and obviously, we wouldn’t want to be owning anything that we thought was in a currency that was really going to hell. And that’s the big thing we worry about with the United States currency. I mean it the the tendency of a government to want to debase its currency over time is there’s no system that beats that. You you can pick dictators, you can pick representatives, you can do anything. But but the people there there will be a a push toward weaker currencies.
Claude 分析一下
The context was a discussion about currency risk and Berkshire’s investments in Japanese companies. Buffett was explaining how they don’t make investment decisions based on short-term earnings impacts, but rather on long-term value. He then mentioned currency devaluation as a major risk factor they consider.
He went on to explain that governments have a natural tendency to debase their currencies over time, noting: The tendency of a government to want to debase its currency over time is there’s no system that beats that.
Buffett expressed concern about U.S. fiscal policy potentially leading to currency problems, explaining that the current fiscal deficit is unsustainable long-term. He emphasized that currency debasement is particularly dangerous because it undermines societal stability - when people who trust their government get financially hurt while those who find ways to profit from inflation become richer.
The comment reflects Buffett’s broader concern about fiscal responsibility and the long-term risks of excessive government debt and money printing. It’s part of his risk management philosophy - they’re careful about exposure to currencies they believe might significantly lose value over time.
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